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Possibilities of preventing the negative influence of cognitive biases on everyday decision making
Tesařová, Monica ; Stehlík, Luděk (advisor) ; Uhlář, Pavel (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with possibilities of preventing the influence of cognitive biases on our everyday decision making, especially with the negative effect of the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic on consumer behavior. The first chapter is concerned with human irrationality in decision making, primarily with cognitive biases. Some of the most significant types of cognitive biases that negatively affect our decision making are presented and various approaches trying to explain their origin and nature are introduced subsequently. It continues with a chapter on possibilities of the prevention of cognitive biases where the theory of debiasing is mentioned and an example of a successful debiasing strategy is presented. The last chapter of the theoretical part focuses in detail on one particular type of cognitive bias that arises from using the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic. The aim of the empirical part of the thesis is then to propose a strategy that will, at least partially, help reducing the negative impact of this bias on our decision making in everyday situations - particularly from the consumer perspective. Another part of this is also an outline for an experimental study that would help verify the effectiveness of the proposed measures. Keywords: heuristics, cognitive biases,...
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The Theme of Rationality as Depicted by Yudkowsky in Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
Macků, Kateřina ; Topolovská, Tereza (advisor) ; Ženíšek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis aims to explore the theme of rationality as it is developed in Eliezer Yudkowsky's fan fiction series Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality (2010). The theoretical part provides an introduction to the concept of fan fiction and studies its position within the contemporary literary context, introduces Eliezer Yudkowsky and his work, explores his background as a rationalist, and focuses on the topics of Bayes' Theorem, Bayesian reasoning and cognitive biases, which are incorporated into Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality. The practical part then draws upon the concepts established in the theoretical part and exemplifies Yudkowsky's use of rationalist concepts, specifically as a central theme of the narrative and how it shapes the character and actions of Harry Potter and other characters. It demonstrates Yudkowsky's use of rational concepts and also evaluates how the theme of rationality adds intrigue to the plot and drives it forward. By examining key moments and characterisation throughout the narrative, the thesis then assesses the effectiveness of Yudkowsky's advocacy for rationality and the way in which rationality is portrayed. KEYWORDS Eliezer Yudkowsky, rationality, fan fiction, cognitive biases, Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
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Foreign language effect in framing
Križák, Jan ; Remr, Jiří (advisor) ; Dvořák, Tomáš (referee)
The main aim of the thesis was to investigate the effect of the use of a foreign language - in this case, English - on the strength of the framing effect in framing types that have not been studied in this respect before. According to the results, framing through the manipulation of emotionally charged keywords is indeed mitigated by the use of a foreign language. The main factors at play here are whether the respondent started learning the foreign language at an early age before the emotion-regulation systems were developed, and whether the respondent is accustomed to using the language routinely. Visual framing yielded the opposite results - in the absence of the keywords, only the effect of greater cognitive load remained for respondents completing the questionnaire in English, which magnified the framing bias. This effect was stronger for respondents whose English skills were weaker and who used English less. In the case of framing using the status quo, the results were inconclusive as there was a bias most likely caused by an inaccuracy in translation.
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Use of the anchoring effect in marketing communication
Režný, Michal ; Vranka, Marek (advisor) ; Báča, Ladislav (referee)
This bachelor thesis is dedicated to the study of the anchoring effect, one of the most common cognitive biases, and its potential use in marketing communication. The first section of the first part provides a theoretical summary of the anchoring effect as a psychological phenomenon in the form in which it was defined by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the early 1970s. It addresses the possible explanations of anchoring and also gives a brief introduction to related cognitive biases, understanding of which is crucial for further orientation in the use of anchoring in marketing communication. The main body of the first part is formed by a theoretical research of academic literature and consequently conducted studies and experiments. The terminological discrepancies between fields when it comes to anchoring in marketing communication are dealt with special attention. A considerable part of this section is dedicated to the different types of use of anchoring in marketing communication. The second part of this paper is an empirical one. It describes an experiment conducted by the author of this work with the objective of studying the effect of anchoring and its usability in practice on the example of fictitious car commercials. The results of the experiment suggest that while there is an evidence...
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The hot hand fallacy
Augustin, Michael ; Korbel, Václav (advisor) ; Šťastná, Lenka (referee)
The "hot hand" effect describes the phenomenon when an athlete makes a considerable in his performance following a series of successes. In the professional literature was the "hot hand" effect considered a fallacy until 2014, when a substantial bias was discovered in the original test method, and a new set of statistics, which controlled for the bias, was introduced. The aim of this work is to test the occurrence of "hot hand" using new methods and to create a performance analysis of both genders. Furthermore it will be proven that the "hot hand" is not a privilege of the best NBA players in the world, but can also occur in semi-professional leagues such as the Czech NBL. The first part of the thesis presents the theory of "hot-hand fallacy" and its important implications in the world of economics and finance. There is also a key review of the "hot hand" literature. In the second and third parts, the biased data and the methodology of the "hot hand" literature are presented, and a new method for controlling this bias is introduced. The results of individual analyses confirm the significant findings of the "hot" and "cold" hand and demonstrate the effectiveness of the new unbiased test. Results discussing the performance test according to gender and the possibilities of further testing are to be...
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Zmírňování kognitivních zkreslení: Jak udělat rozhodování v byznyse racionálnější?
Kučera, Tomáš ; Cingl, Lubomír (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
The thesis is concerned with cognitive biases, especially with confirmation bias, and with various approaches to their mitigation. It elaborates on three main categories of debiasing strategies, namely increasing incentives, adjusting the environment in order to avoid or offset the bias, and training people in recognizing the situations in which a bias occurs and in mitigating the effects of the bias. An experiment in which the patterns of information selection and the effects of a debiasing training were investigated is reported. The results show that participants exhibited confirmation bias both in the selection of information and in the information processing, and that debiasing training effectively decreased the level of confirmation bias by 33 % at the 5% significance level. The debiasing training took the form of a short video which included information about confirmation bias and its impact on judgement, and mitigation strategies.
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Cognitive biases: How much are we influenced by previous rating? Effect of previous rating on the following "quality" of the movie.
Michňák, Matěj ; Cingl, Lubomír (advisor) ; Máslo, Lukáš (referee)
This thesis examines whether our choice of movie rating is influenced by previous rating based on a simple web experiment. There are 2 groups - group of laymen from the ranks of students and group of active movie fans. Each participant was randomly distributed into one of 3 subgroups in his group. There is a control subgroup with no previous rating, a treatment subgroup with low previous rating and a treatment subgroup with high previous rating. In 3 out of 4 treatment subgroups there was found out using regression analysis significant change of average rating in comparison to control subgroups by more than 1 point on scale 1 to 10. There wasn´t found out smaller bias towards previous rating in group of movie fans, which was the reason why this group had been added. Subgroups with low previous rating influence average rating in both groups, subgroups with high previous rating only in group of active movie fans.
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Investor jako Homo Oeconomicus nebo Human; Jaké jsou zdroje odchylek od racionality na finančních trzích?
Vacha, Robert ; Chytilová, Helena (advisor) ; Prokop, Jaromír (referee)
The thesis deals with the differences among phenomena of Homo Oeconomicus and Human and their presence in the financial markets. Furthermore, it aims at revealing differences of behavior in alignment with the phenomena among groups of people involved and not involved in the financial markets. To do so we use an experiment with its assessment based on the Anchoring Index. For the purpose of the research of behavior in alignment with the Prospect theory, the thesis defines new index of assessment of human behavior the Human Index upon which it draws conclusions about the two groups. The results show no significant difference in propensity to bias and marginal difference in behavior in alignment with the prospect theory where the group involved in the financial markets reveals less Human behavior. Altogether, the findings are no remarkable difference in behavior among the two groups, i.e. both the group of people involved in the financial markets as well as those not involved are Human at very similar levels.
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